THE BIG BET - EXPORT EDITION

For many, Trump's 2024 victory over Kamala Harris was a shock. He won the popular vote. He won decisively. But for
those following political prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, this outcome was entirely expected. In recent years, prediction markets
have become more accurate than mainstream polls, catapulting them from a niche curiosity to a mainstream source for political intelligence, as
well as massive profits.
The Big Bet traces how prediction markets developed, how they are changing our world, and what they mean for the future of democratic
self-governance.
Political betting has existed since the Middle Ages, when citizens and even prelates would wager on the outcome of papal conclaves. What's
new is the scale, the speed, and the stakes. Modern, blockchain-based prediction markets are multibillion-dollar businesses with minimal
regulation. Do they promote healthy democratic engagement, or do they commodify politics, distort public opinion, and erode trust in
governmental institutions? What happens when those tasked with safeguarding democracy possess financial stakes in its volatility?
Drawing on deep expertise across finance, policy, and history, Auerbach argues that political prediction markets are not an anomaly. They are
the logical endpoint of a society that has applied market capitalism to every aspect of life, including its own governance.